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Equifax Hack

As you may have already heard, Equifax US was recently hacked. Although they don't anticipate that many Canadians will be affected, it is still a good idea to check. Equifax has set up a site where you can check to see if your information could have been accessed, and if so they will enroll you in a free identity theft program. Check out the details here www.christinebuemann.ca  

Economists: Rates to Remain on Hold

CanadianMortgageTrends.com Despite robust headline inflation and growing employment, the market expects no rate change when the Bank of Canada meets tomorrow. A drab North American economy, strong loonie, and European debt concerns will keep rate hikes at bay, according to all 37 economists polled by Reuters. Not one of them expects a rate change until later this year or early 2012. The overnight rate has now stood at 1.00% for nine months. Here are some soundbytes about Tuesday’s rate announcement: “The arguments are there for the Bank of Canada to start hiking rates next week, but we increasingly think that this fall might even be too early given the problems we are seeing in the global economy.” — Jimmie Jean, Desjardins Capital Markets. (Source: CBC News) “While (the recent) pace of economic growth will be sufficient to get the economy back to full potential by mid-2012, we highly doubt this news will push the Bank of Canada off the sidelines at next week’s fixed rate a...

How Vulnerable Are Canadian Housing Prices?

Benjamin Tal - Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC World Markets So is it a bubble? Glancing at popular metrics such as the price-to-income ratio or the price-to-rent ratio, it is tempting to conclude that the housing market is already in clear bubble territory and a huge crash is inevitable. Tempting, but probably wrong. When it comes to the Canadian real estate market at this stage of the cycle, any statement based on average numbers can be hugely misleading. The truth is buried in the details—and there the picture is still not pretty, but much less alarming. For the full article, please click on the link below http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/feature2.pdf

TD Bank forecasts low interest rates this year

OTTAWA — The TD Bank says Canadians can expect borrowing costs to remain near record lows for the rest of the year. That’s because the pace of the economic recovery is expected to slow sharply in Canada, the United States and much of the world. As such, the Bank of Canada will likely refrain from raising its key interest rates until 2012, TD says. The central bank has had its policy rate set at one per cent since September. The rate was set at all-time low of 0.25 per cent through much of the recession, to stimulate borrowing and spending, until a series of rate hikes began last summer. The still-low rates have been a double-edged sword for Canadians who are already piling up debt at record levels, according to the Certified General Accountants Association of Canada. The association says Canadian household debt has reached a record $1.5 trillion, and calculates that more than half of indebted Canadians are borrowing just to afford day-to-day living expenses such as food, housing and tr...

Canadian Mortgage Rate Forecast

Over the past few months, major economists have back peddled on their rate hike predictions. Not long ago, the consensus of economists was projecting a July 19 increase. Now, those same analysts aren't looking for a rate bump until this fall...or later. A slew of factors justify a deferral of rate increases, including: • A parade of weak economic data from the U.S.—our key trading partner • Core inflation that remains manageable • Global economic risks • Debt-laden consumers that are only cautiously spending • A U.S. housing market that's double-dipping • U.S. unemployment that may be structurally and permanently elevated • A Canadian dollar that is still acting as a brake on our economy. For reasons like these, TD Bank became the first major bank last week to predict the Bank of Canada would stand pat on rates through 2011. Depending on how the next rounds of economic data look, other banks may follow suit. Then again, the rate picture can and does change. BMO says: "...i...

BoC's Mark Carney warns of runaway housing market

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney sounded more alarm bells last week. It was a warning about the perfect storm of rapidly rising home prices and the future vulnerabilities of homeowners when interest rates start rising. Fittingly, Carney was speaking in Vancouver, where home prices are up a whopping 25.7% year-over-year—if you include the sales of high-end homes. Carney noted that the average house price nationally is at four-and-a-half times the average household disposable income. This compares to an average ratio of three-and-a-half times during the past quarter century, he said. Here's a Chart. (Mortgage affordability, however, is still just slightly above normal, based on long-term averages, but that is based on current interest rates.) While he didn’t come out and call Canada’s housing market a “bubble,” he certainly warned about the current level of “financial vulnerabilities.” “...the ratio between the all-in monthly costs of owning a home and renting a home, as measured ...

Canada's jobless rate falls to lowest level in two years

CANADA’S JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL IN TWO YEARS By Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press OTTAWA - Canada's unemployment rate fell to its lowest in more than two years as a combination of more self-employed workers and fewer job seekers in May pushed the key economic marker down to 7.4 per cent. Statistics Canada said 22,300 new jobs were created last month, slightly above consensus estimates following April's strong 58,000 jobs gain. The last time Canada's unemployment rate was as low as 7.4 per cent was in January 2009, a few months after the economy had plunged into recession. The finer details of the May report were less impressive, however. "Small business is of vital importance to the Canadian economy, but job creation within this category in a soft spot for the economy (and) is always a knock against the quality of the headline gain," Derek Holt, vice-president of economics for Scotiabank, said in a note to clients. The number of employees in Canada a...

What is the Bank of Canada's Qualifying Rate?

The Bank of Canada lowered their Qualifying Rate by another .10% to 5.49%, effective today. The qualifying rate is generally used by lenders on most high ratio* deals to qualify: • A mortgage with any term length of under 5 years • Variable rate mortgages • Home Equity Lines of Credit • 50/50 mortgages The reason why the Qualifying Rate was implemented is because interest rates have been hovering around at a historic low. Using the increased rate ensures that purchasers have room within their monthly budget to withstand an increase in mortgage payments. Essentially, the Bank of Canada wants Canadians to only be entering into mortgages that are sustainable over the long run for their income. Every lender has their own set of guidelines for conventional deals (more than 20% down payment). *a high ratio deal is one that has less than 20% for down payment

CMHC Second Quarter Overview

Canada Mortgage and House Corporation released its housing Market Outlook for the second quarter in 2011. Here are a few highlights. • Housing starts: Housing starts are moving back in line with demographic fundamentals, after peaking in the second quarter of 2010. Since then, they have progressively moderated, including in the first quarter of 2011. Housing starts are forecast to be 179,500 units for 2011 and 185,300 units for 2012. • Resales: Sales of existing homes through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) have made further gains in the first quarter of 2011. MLS® sales are expected to increase modestly both in 2011 and in 2012. Overall, 452,100 sales are expected in 2011, followed by 461,300 in 2012. • Resale prices: The increase in the average MLS® price in the first quarter of 2011 was stronger than expected, but the average MLS® price is expected to moderate throughout the remainder of the year. For 2011, the average MLS® price is forecast to be $361,100 while 2012 will see a...

Creative Mortgage Solutions

Feature: Stated Income Product I currently have access to a stated income product that is extremely beneficial for clients who do not make as much “on paper”. Most lenders offer Stated Income products, but the difference with this particular lender is that they accept clients who earn a base salary plus commission (or tips) instead of only self-employed clients. It is usually in the client’s best interest to try an “A” lender first, but if you are looking for alternative lending options, it is nice to know that they are available. The interest rates for this particular product are slightly higher due to the higher level of risk the lender is assuming therefore it should be considered a back up option. 5.5% cash-back for down payment Please note that the lender who is currently offering 5.5% cash-back that can be used towards the down payment will only be offering this until June 30th, 2011. After that time, I will still have access to cash-back for down payment products, but only up to...

Strategy: Inflating Your Mortgage Payments

A meagre 1 in 4 borrowers made extra principal payments on their mortgage last year. There are easy ways to make extra payments and erase your mortgage many years quicker. What follows is a basic strategy to shorten your effective amortization dramatically, and barely make a dent in your bank account. The idea isn’t fancy. All you need to do is increase your mortgage payments each year to match the rate of inflation. Over the long-haul, inflation has come in at about 2% on average. Two percent also happens to be a reasonable expectation of annual wage growth—at least according to long-term averages and income growth forecasts. If you’re a typical Canadian family earning $68,860* a year, 2% wage growth suggests you’ll make about $1,377 more next year. So, given this information, let’s consider the median Canadian family with a “typical” mortgage (e.g., a $250,000 loan fixed at 3.99% interest, with a 30-year amortization and $1,187 monthly payments). If a borrower proceeded down this pat...

Demystifying the mobile home myth

One common misconception that I hear frequently is that mobile homes are cheaper and easier to purchase. Although they can be, if purchased on their own land, mobiles in parks tend to cost more over the long term than some buyers anticipate. There are several factors that contribute to this: • You generally cannot extend the amortization beyond 25 years (sometimes not past 10 or 15 years depending on the age of the home). This makes monthly payments higher, hence the buyers qualifying maximum mortgage amount will be lowered • Banks will usually charge their “posted rate” as opposed to the discounted rates that you may receive for a small house or duplex • Although you commonly pay less in property taxes for a mobile in a park, you will have to factor in the pad rent that is in addition to the taxes Here is a comparison of $120,000 purchase with 5% down. I have factored in $100 a month for heating as per the industry standard. I have also factored in CMHC fees. Mobile in park (at curren...

Homeowners grants and rebates to consider

With tax season upon us, anything that can add to a homeowner's bottom line is welcome news. The Vancouver Sun has done some leg work and compiled a list of the best grants and rebates for homeowners and property buyers. Here are my top picks: FIRST-TIME HOME BUYERS' TAX CREDIT (HBTC): This federal non-refundable income tax credit is for qualifying buyers of detached, attached, apartment condominiums, mobile homes or shares in a cooperative housing corporation. For the 2010 tax year, the maximum credit is $750. For more information: www.cra.gc.ca/hbtc BC PROPERTY TAX DEFERMENT PROGRAMS: Property Tax Deferment Program for Seniors. Qualifying home owners aged 55+ may be eligible to defer property taxes. Financial Hardship Property Tax Deferment Program. Qualifying low-income home owners may be eligible to defer property taxes. Property Tax Deferment Program for Families with Children. Qualifying low income home owners who financially support children under age 18 may be eligible ...

Yields Ascend To A 5-Month High

Everyone’s seen the housing bubble headlines this year. But some say there is a real bubble that’s been overlooked, and it’s been losing air fast. The reference is to the bond market. Bonds have collapsed and yields (which lead fixed mortgage rates) have catapulted .70% higher since October 19. On Friday, 5-year government yields made a 22-week high, closing at 2.56%. The Wall Street Journal proclaimed, in reference to US yields, this could be “the end of the bond mania.” (US and Canadian yields are tightly correlated.) If yields move much higher, lenders will certainly lift longer-term fixed rates. A few already have. Keep that in mind if you’re planning to get a fixed rate hold soon. Fortunately, there are still excellent fixed rates to be had. Whether yields continue higher from here is anyone’s guess. Traders say there is a bias in the market to keep selling bonds near-term, but there is also a high probability of up-and-down volatility until economic growth is more consistent. Som...