With the Bank of Canada maintaining the status quo last week, many are wondering what’s next for mortgage rates.
If you put any stock in the Big Six banks’ predictions, here’s the latest commentary from their professional ball gazers…
CIBC: “We're sticking with our view that an upgraded economic outlook in April's policy report will pave the way for a rate hike in May, assuming the C$ settles down a bit before then.”
BMO: "We judge that the bank is waiting for evidence that U.S. economic performance is strong and steady enough to ensure that Canadian exports will contribute to Canadian economic growth regardless of the level of the loonie. We’ve pencilled in a July resumption of rate hikes.”
National Bank: “There is a compelling case to be made for higher interest rates in Canada since excess supply is closing faster than previously anticipated by the Bank…We remain of the opinion that the next rate hike will occur at the May 31 interest-rate setting meeting.”
RBC: “The Bank is unlikely to stay on the sidelines for long if the data continue to show that the economy is maintaining its upward momentum…We maintain our call for 100 basis points of rate increase in 2011 with the first hike coming in May 2011.”
Scotiabank: “…When it comes to forecasting the resumption of rate hikes by the BoC ... we think that doesn't occur until October of this year.”
TD: "In the wake of today’s statement, markets will pare back bets that a rate hike is in the pipeline in April or May…A next hike in July still appears the fairest bet."
These predictions apply to the overnight rate, which has a direct impact on prime rate. Prime rate, of course, is the basis for variable mortgage rates.
As always, it’s worth remembering that economist rate predictions are subject to change and error.
If you put any stock in the Big Six banks’ predictions, here’s the latest commentary from their professional ball gazers…
CIBC: “We're sticking with our view that an upgraded economic outlook in April's policy report will pave the way for a rate hike in May, assuming the C$ settles down a bit before then.”
BMO: "We judge that the bank is waiting for evidence that U.S. economic performance is strong and steady enough to ensure that Canadian exports will contribute to Canadian economic growth regardless of the level of the loonie. We’ve pencilled in a July resumption of rate hikes.”
National Bank: “There is a compelling case to be made for higher interest rates in Canada since excess supply is closing faster than previously anticipated by the Bank…We remain of the opinion that the next rate hike will occur at the May 31 interest-rate setting meeting.”
RBC: “The Bank is unlikely to stay on the sidelines for long if the data continue to show that the economy is maintaining its upward momentum…We maintain our call for 100 basis points of rate increase in 2011 with the first hike coming in May 2011.”
Scotiabank: “…When it comes to forecasting the resumption of rate hikes by the BoC ... we think that doesn't occur until October of this year.”
TD: "In the wake of today’s statement, markets will pare back bets that a rate hike is in the pipeline in April or May…A next hike in July still appears the fairest bet."
These predictions apply to the overnight rate, which has a direct impact on prime rate. Prime rate, of course, is the basis for variable mortgage rates.
As always, it’s worth remembering that economist rate predictions are subject to change and error.
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