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CREA bumps up predictions for 2011 sales

“National sales activity is forecast to reach 450,800 units in 2011, up less than one per cent from levels in 2010,” reads the CREA report, released this week. “We had previously forecast a decline of about one per cent for activity in 2011. National sales activity in 2012 is forecast to ease seven tenths of a percentage point to 447,700 units, which is roughly on par with its 10-year average.”

The new projections come on the heels of last week’s tumult on world stock markets and a pledge by the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold its rates at historically low levels for at least another two years. The decision has likely scuttled Bank of Canada plans to raise its own rates this year, something poised to increase home sales, if only marginally, according to CREA.

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“While there had been some talk of potential interest rate increases, that hasn't happened,” said CREA President Gary Morse. “In fact, rates have actually come down, and are now expected to remain low for the remainder of this year and into 2012. It's a great opportunity to purchase a property with financing at very favorable rates.”

It’s a message mortgage professionals are hoping clients will take to heart. Brokers and agents, across the country, continue to report a slow summer season compared to last year. Many are also contending with a higher-than-usual number of preapprovals, with clients reluctant to convert. They’re waiting on a price correction that shows little sign of materializing, argue economists.

According to the CREA report, relying on MLS data, British Columbia's 2011 sales forecast has been revised slightly higher, in recognition that home sales appear to have bottomed out sooner than previously anticipated. “Overall, sales activity and prices remained stronger than expected in the second quarter,” it reads. “Sales momentum was also better than expected heading into the third quarter. As a result, the 2011 national forecasts for sales activity and average price have been raised slightly.”

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